16 Oct

Why the form book is a living document

Hi Everyone ,

I waved goodbye to the Flat season on Saturday at Newmarket on Dewhurst day. On the surface that may seem odd to you as there is still Champions day at Ascot and other big flat days to come but I always do this.

I need a transition period of a few days from Flat to jumps after having my eye trained to watching Flat horses there are very different elements of race reading for the jumps. This gives me a while to cross over so I’m fully ready to go.

I also think that a lot of early season jumps form is relevant and does work out later in the season which is the opposite of what the confirmed wisdom was a few years ago about early season jumps form. There used to be a feeling that early season was dross until the November meeting at Cheltenham in November.

There is always someone saying in the media this is the “start’ of the jumps season be it Chepstow , the Charlie Hall at Wetherby or the Paddy Power. You can make yourself dizzy wondering when it starts.lets just say here and now that that first meeting at Cheltenham before the big open meeting the form will work out right the way to the festival.  Don’t be thinking this early season form does not work out it does.

So we finished the flat season in sizzling style at Newmarket on Saturday with great results across the platform. Race Reader bagged two big winners on Saturday as did Four From the Top and as did the mighty Work Rider.

I try and keep things level  we are an advisory service and I’m very proud of whats happened on the Platform.I want to talk about race reading not to blow my own trumpet but to show a way of doing it that others may wish to consider.

US Navy Flag was a huge 10/1 winner for Race Reader customers in the Dewhurst on Saturday.

Now US Navy Flag had previously won the Middle Park a Group 1 and initially i had found that a very confusing result. It felt like it was the complete opposite to what we know at the time about 2 year old form and what it should be. However I looked again and remembered we are dealing with 2 year old who strengthen and develop and we are all guilty sometimes of not looking hard enough or not looking back.

What I decided to do was look back at the Middle park in detail and I saw that there were some collateral form lines in there . The evidence then appeared as to why that result had happened. Its vital to keep on reassessing form and figures as i do with my private handicap figures. If i had not gone back and rechecked i would never have realised and would have kept to the wrong arrogant conclusion that the form was wrong and that race was no good and we would never have been on US Navy Flag at 10/1 for the Dewhurst who duly bolted in @ 10/1 .

With big races I always use horse tracker when certain horses are running from big races. I will then see them run and be able to work through previous form and reassess.Its constant work to build up a form book . I remember when I worked on course there was not one occasion when I watched a horse race and just left it after one view.i always re watched it later and always my initial thoughts were changed when I had done more work and private handicapped.we often watch easy winners and think wow but we must look behind and take the race as a whole.By not doing that and sticking to initial thoughts many punters get caught out because they have not seen the substance of the whole form.

With Race Reader you are paying me to do that work constantly in the background watching and assessing so that we can see the whole picture .The private handicap ratings will pick up things that others miss and we can benefit from it is a constant and evolving process and the form book can be seen as a living document and not something set in stone.

This is why I focus and specialise on high class racing because other wise its too much.Anyone who is telling you they can cover all the form in detail all the time is deluded. I pick the main races at the main meetings and concentrate on them and the Festivals.this is so i can go into the depth needed.

By taking this approach you are bumping into the same Collateral formalises all the time and building up the picture that you need.Without being rude to the Tipsters that are telling you they have all form covered and can give 7/8 tips a day . I will put it bluntly ignore them they are full of shit.

To have longevity and be a success you must work and you are paying for a real service and that is what I provide. US Navy Flag is the perfect example of why I work so hard go back go back go back and look again and you will be rewarded.

And what great tactics from Ballydoyle out from the gun and on with it  which made Expert Eye get out of his comfort zone.  Expert Eye was stepping up a level to group 1 and blew his brains early. On a line with Seahenge Expert Eye has way under performed but remember this was a huge step up to group 1 and he was not up to it. US Navy Flag may well have improved a few pounds for the step up in trip and better ground as well !!

Matt AKA Race Reader

 

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