Its Thursday and that means another Blog from our CEO and Founder Matt Mitter AKA Race Reader.
Last Thursday we looked at one of my golden rules of betting namely never back a horse that fell or was pulled up last time. As I was walking the dog today I found myself thinking about Top Trainers.
One of the key things about what I do is that I constantly need to update my ideas and adapt to new ways of thinking. Some of all old punting strategies will no longer work that’s just a fact of punting life. Over a long period of time I look for evidence of a new strategy.
One thing I’ve noticed about the Top Jumps Trainers like Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson is that their horses are constantly over bet. Because of this when they get a few beat the media and punters will cry that the yard are out of form and in trouble. Mostly that’s rubbish the horses are just over bet and too short in the market and getting beat. This happened last season with another big name trainer in Allan King. Perhaps Tipsters/Punters seek comfort in blaming Trainers rather than questioning their own methods and strategies.
Looking at Paul Nicholls and on the Flat Sir Michael Stoute who I struggled to get a handle on for years on the Flat. I used to think when we get to the higher graded and group races they were all much of a muchness but I realize we have to factor in the really great Trainers .You have to think with Stoute and with Nicholls what is their benchmark with a horse and how they can draw improvement out. These certain trainers are exceptions to the rule and major improvement in horses can be seen time and time again with these Trainers. Hats one thing I have learned from years of studying them and at the start of the season they will think of the longevity of the season and of the horse. Some of the lesser lights will have a horse as good as it can be right at the beginning and that’s where it will stay.
Nicholls this season I will be watching for this progression, now he can get them fit for debuts but he has evolved his methods so that progression continues throughout the season. If you remember when he started he used to have brilliant early season form, which he could never keep going at the end. He has identified this and evolved his methods. So now when I see his horses I fully expect there to be three or four pounds improvement to come and factor that in to my thinking. With Nicky Henderson I expect to see consistency throughout the year but Nicholls owing to the change in his approach you can pretty much guarantee that improvement.
That’s what makes him great so he can get horses to win in the lower grades but draw out improvement to still win the big races that really matter .Seing that and being able to adept my betting around this Genius factor if you like keeps me ahead of the game.
Hopefully next week we will be telling you all about the New Value Rater Platform and what improvements you can expect. Old members and new will be impressed and we are busy putting it all together and as always your customer experience will come first.