Ascot 4.20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes Selection PROJECTION 1 Point Each Way 33/1
The feature race on Saturday is the Diamond Jubilee Stakes a Group firstname.lastname@example.org over 6 furlongs with 12 intended runners at time of writing. It is a fascinating renewal of a really great race. Tactically I have a feeling that team OBrien who have been working beautifully this week will try and help each other in this race which they do so well.
HARRY ANGEL is the best priced 3/1 favourite and will be for many people the headline horse. It won first time up at York in a Group 2 giving 5 pounds to the likes of BRANDO and still beat it 2 lengths. They tried something different here rather than blasting off they used more restraint. Whether that is a clue to a new approach I do not know. He has blasted off and got away with it on sharper tracks but at stiff championship pace on other tracks he has not quite done it. When trying that tactic he has got done by something from behind. It may well be they will try the restrained approach again here and I do think team OBrien will ensure it is run at a very good pace. If HARRY ANGLE does not go on I am sure they will and I think the pace will be from the low numbers.
I believe they will try and help MERCHANT NAVY drawn in 11 with Ryan Moore aboard their number one runner as 6 furlongs is the absolute minimum for that one. It is by FASTNET ROCK and it is amazing it has been able to win a group 1 at a sprinting distance and Moore will track over behind a fast pace and try and come late. On balance HARRY ANGEL just did not blow me away last time now don’t get me wrong it was a good performance he was just not as sharp and speedy as I had seen him before.On a lot of form lines in this race he holds a lot of the horses but at this track he does not excite me at the price in a very hot renewal.
We have mentioned MERCHANT NAVY drawn in 11 who won at the Curragh last time beating SPIRIT OF VALOR. That runs again today and is another for team OBrien and a likely pace setter. He was slowly into stride and came form the back of the field and got it done. He has to be a big danger to everything in here.
THE TIN MAN is 8/1 for James Fanshawe and is a 2 times group 1 winner who seems to have been around for ever. He won a Listed race at Windsor on his reappearance but he has seen the backside of HARRY ANGEL already a few times. For that reason THE TIN MAN is not for me today.
CITY LIGHT is over from France at 14/1 having won a Group 3 over there and on Championship day at Lingfield she ran a fast time from a bad draw and there is form that puts him not far behind HARRY ANGEL. That is through a collateral line through BRANDO. He could be very interesting at 14/1.In the end the form line I went was from HARRY ANGEL’S run at York with BRANDO and you have to think HARRY ANGEL will improve.
My selection is at a big price PROJECTION @33/1 for Roger Charlton who is owned by the Royal Ascot Racing Club so there is a good clue that this horse has been aimed at this. The horse has had 2 starts and in the first one it was a little bit slowly away and then unable to quicken in the closing stages finishing third. BRANDO was in that race which gives us a link to HARRY ANGEL. If you go through a pound a length he has a bit to find with the favourite but I thought he came on for that when finishing third behind THE TIN MAN next time. He was only a quarter of a length behind him at Windsor and just past the line he went past him and that was over 6 furlongs. I think this horse actually wants 7 furlongs but the fast pace likely I have mentioned should suit him perfectly. I know this is a Group 1 and a big ask but I don’t think we have reached the ceiling of what this horse is capable of. I do think given the way the race may pan out he may well hit the frame at a big price. Even as a 2 year old and it is funny how form works out he beat a horse called TARRABAK who was third at Haydock recently to DBAI who was second at Windsor in between THE TIN MAN and PROJECTION. Though we didn’t know at the time PROJECTION from being a 2 year old has been taking on group class horses. Now we are at Group 1 level and I think he is a fascinating runner. We will go 1 Point Each Way @28/1 PROJECTION.
A fascinating renewal of this great race and HARRY ANGEL will be very popular but I just think he is too short and personally I think he was worth taking on. Team OBrien will go off at a fast pace and that may well suit our selection PROJECTION who is a huge price.
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