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17 Jul

Worth backing at 33/1

My thoughts have turned to Goodwood which of course is going to be happening very shortly. I have had my eye on a horse that looks like his next run is likely to be at Glorious Goodwood. Even if he does not pitch up there then this is still a horse that needs to go into your horse tracker. I am not sure whether the fire brigade should be called or it should be the police and you can make your own minds up as to what I am referring to.

FIRE BRIGADE is indeed the horse and he first came to my attention when in 2016 he won on the All Weather in a Class 6, 0 to 60 would you believe. The horse won off a mark of 56 which is quite incredible when you think what he has achieved since then and he currently has a mark of 97. So, just the 41 pounds of improvement then since way back then or of course is it improvement or has the handicapper just found out about him.

I flagged him up way back then as a well handicapped horse but I must admit I never thought we would be talking about the horse like we are today. As he rose through the ranks of handicappers it was clear that FIRE BRIGADE was suited to big fields and he had too be ridden for luck, form the back weaving through the field. I have always felt when you have a horse that has to be delivered like that they are shall we say easier to get handicapped. You can always say well he found trouble and of course they can find it if they want to and I am always a little suspicious.

Last season FIRE BRIGADE won at Haydock in a Class 4 event off 84 in soft ground. He was then tried at Ascot where he just failed behind CAPE BYRON off 90 in a fairly small field. The one line of form I am particularly interested in and want to look at is 29th September last year at Newmarket in the Cambridgeshire consolation race the Silver and he ran off 90 in that race. That is the mark he has today and that race was a Class Handicap in its own right despite being a consolation for the main event.

That race is run over 1 mile 1 furlong and how that race has worked out is actually quite remarkable. The race was won by ADDEYBB for William Haggas who went on to be a stunning winner of the Lincoln at Doncaster. He followed that up by winning a Group 2. He was in receipt of only 3 pounds from that horse and was only beaten less than half a length. The second horse was Trained by Charles Hills and is called AFAAK who after disappointing on his comeback run this year then went to York and won a decent handicap off 97 beating LOVE DREAMS. Then at the recent Royal Ascot meeting AFAAK finished second in the Royal Hunt Cup off a mark of 103.

So, we can see both those lines of form from the Silver Cambridgeshire have not just worked out they have worked out extremely well. On my private handicap ratings looking back at this race FIRE BRIGADE has run somewhere near a mark of 108 to 110 which shows you what he has in hand. This season on the face of it if you had not been watching the horse closely you would think has been disappointing and he wouldn’t have caught your eye that would make you want to get involved with him in a big handicap.

His first run of the season was in the Lincoln and if you remember he was a fairly short price off 98 and he was well gambled to win it off that and he remember is now off 97. He was well beaten but let’s not forget it was a very soft ground Lincoln and the race fell apart because of that. For me it just did not suit the horse’s running style. I watched the horse carefully at Newmarket on his next run on the 17th April in a big field Class 2 handicap with 19 runners and he was ridden by Jamie Spencer that day. Spencer has been a regular pilot for the horse who only finished tenth that day and was slowly into stride by design I think. He was held up and obviously given his running style he has to weave his way through but I just felt that if he had wanted to be he could have been an awful lot closer. Once I had seen that run he was definitely on my radar thinking that they will be lining this up for a decent handicap.

His next appearance was at Haydock where I backed him on the 28th April and even though it was a small field I felt it was too tempting at the prices at around 9/2. I was not sure if that day was going to be the day and I do think they had a right go with him. He finished second beaten 3 and a half lengths to a horse called GULF OF POETS from the Mick Easterby yard. That horse had previously won well at Pontefract and there was a nice gap back top the third MASHAM STAR. I think the small field did not suit the horse and he had to get racing GULF OF POETS too early and they were isolated on their own whereas this horse needs to be delivered late passing horses.
After this run FIRE BRIGADE had a wind op and was off the track for 61 days. He returned on the All Weather at Newcastle on the 28th June in Class 2 company a 0 to 95 race. The temptation for me of course was to back him that day but I stopped myself because I thought there may be a bigger handicap around the corner. I watched him very carefully from start to finish from the gate and was full of interest to see his first run back. He was in midfield then lost his place two furlongs out and I would urge you to go and watch the race! I don’t want to point any fingers I just say go and watch the race back. If anyone thinks that horse was asked to do his very best then I would seriously beg to differ. It finished 8th beaten 3 and a half lengths and I thought personally he could have been a lot closer.

After that wind surgery you could say it was a perfect comeback run and he remains on a mark of 97. The handicapper clearly has not been fooled by the horse because it has only been dropped one pound since the first run at Doncaster, a fact I am sure has frustrated connections. The Haydock run in second when he was fully extended will have reinforced to the handicapper that he had the horse about right.

He has I have noticed got an entry at Goodwood on the third of August in the Unibet Golden Mile Handicap. There will certainly be a big field and though you can be unlucky here I always think it is a good track for horses that like to find trouble and need to be delivered late. For FIRE BRIGADE this could be the prefect location and at the time of writing he is currently 33/1 for that race. Of course, it is always difficult backing horses without knowing their full intentions and I would suggest you maybe want to take a little bit of the 33/1 and then maybe follow up on the day if he does line up.

Whatever happens I am absolutely convinced we have not seen the best of FIRE BRIGADE and I am sure he has been lined up for a big handicap and he is certainly one I will be backing.

While we are talking about Goodwood we still are offering you the Free Trial of my private Race Reader service where you get full analysis with each bet. Your Free Trail would cover Goodwood so why not give it a go!

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24 Jun

Press Man is out of the stalls unlike Harry Angel !

Royal Ascot 2018 ended as it had been all week with tremendous racing. I cannot remember such a good Ascot week as the sun shone and the crowd were drunk but non violent and that is just in the Royal Box.

What a story to start the final day as the horse who came back from the dead five times on the day he was born ARTHUR KITT won the Chesham. That birth took life of his Mother who Dascombe trained and Andrew Black the Betfair creator owned. Richard Kingscote rode the Mother to Ascot glory so there was emotion in the air.

ARTHUR KITT is by CAMELOT so should stay longer trips and he outstayed bunch of 2 year olds. I am not sure it is great form but it is a great story and Dascombe was in floods of tears. A sad footnote was Kingscote had no more rides so left the track straight after. Surely, he is too good a jock to be not fully booked at Ascot.

The Hardwicke was a poor renewal and CRYSTAL OCEAN dispatched his rivals who were group 3 and listed types with ease but surely talk of Arcs and King Georges is a little fanciful although he is certainly an improving colt.

Archie Watson is the new kid on the block but as I have written previously he is one too watch and he took Ascot glory in his second year as SOLDIERS CALL took the Windsor Castle in style running most of the race on his own. Watson will be a huge name in the Training World in the next decade make no mistake and he has some shrewd owners backing him and others will follow I am sure.

The day’s controversy was HARRY ANGEL starting the big Diamond Jubilee as favourite with his leg over the back stall. He was certainly bucking and kicking violently and had been very pent up all day and especially in the pre parade. He looked half asleep at York so something had revved him up but for all the punters screaming blue murder the starter claimed Adam Kirby had signed they were good to go. If that’s true then the blame I am afraid is on the jockey! Whatever happened and whoever is to blame it is terrible pr for racing as the big Saturday fave had no chance and that is terrible. MERCHANT NAVY beat French raider CITY LIGHT in a very tight photo and it was turning into a great week for Coolmore. MERCHANT NAVY is some specimen and it is all systems go for the July Cup where a certain BLUE POINT will be waiting and HARRY ANGEL is he agrees to race will be on a comeback mission. It should be quite a race and one for which the starter will be having nightmares already.

The Wokingham is always a great race and it had one of its shortest ever favourites in DREAMFIELD who went off a ludicrous 2/1. Now whatever happened if you are betting 2/1 in 28 runner handicaps I suggest you are in fact insane and in the long run you will be homeless and insane. DREAMFIELD ran a great race to be second for one so inexperienced but got collared by BACCHUS @33/1 for Brian Meehan who will be the toast of every Bookie in the land. DREAMFIELD could well still be a Group class sprinter but please don’t back 2/1 shots in big handicaps.

A fantastic week closed with that old rogue PALLASATOR who must owe every punter in the land about £500 winning the 2 mile 5 handicap easily including looking like he was going for a trip down Ascot high street a furlong out. This race is so long some of the jockeys took a packed lunch. A 12/1 winner was the highlight of a profitable week for my members.

I shall now sleep for 36 hours but I must tell you I am going to Salisbury on Wednesday for a very big gamble the biggest gamble that I have given so far on my service and one not to be missed.

Have a great Sunday I hear there is a football match on?

Press Man out of the stalls and on his way home

22 Jun

Race Reader with a big race Projection for Saturday

Ascot 4.20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes  Selection PROJECTION 1 Point Each Way 33/1

Good Afternoon,

The feature race on Saturday is the Diamond Jubilee Stakes a Group 1@4.20 over 6 furlongs with 12 intended runners at time of writing. It is a fascinating renewal of a really great race. Tactically I have a feeling that team OBrien who have been working beautifully this week will try and help each other in this  race which they do so well.

HARRY ANGEL is the best priced 3/1 favourite and will be for many people the headline horse. It won first time up at York in a Group 2 giving 5 pounds to the likes of BRANDO and still beat it 2 lengths. They tried something different here rather than blasting off they used more restraint. Whether that is a clue to a new approach I do not know. He has blasted off and got away with it on sharper tracks but at stiff championship pace on other tracks he has not quite done it. When trying that tactic he has got done by something from behind. It may well be they will try the restrained approach again here and I do think team OBrien will ensure it is run at a very good pace. If HARRY ANGLE does not go on I am sure they will and I think the pace will be from the low numbers.

I believe they will try and help MERCHANT NAVY drawn in 11 with Ryan Moore aboard their number one runner as 6 furlongs is the absolute minimum for that one. It is by FASTNET ROCK and it is amazing it has been able to win a group 1 at a sprinting distance and Moore will track over behind a fast pace and try and come late. On balance HARRY ANGEL just did not blow me away last time now don’t get me wrong it was a good performance he was just not as sharp and speedy as I had seen him before.On a lot of form lines in this race he holds a lot of the horses but at this track he does not excite me at the price in a very hot renewal.

We have mentioned MERCHANT NAVY drawn in 11 who won at the Curragh last time beating SPIRIT OF VALOR. That runs again today and is another for team OBrien and a likely pace setter. He was slowly into stride and came form the back of the field and got it done. He has to be a big danger to everything in here.

 

THE TIN MAN is 8/1 for James Fanshawe and is a 2 times group 1 winner who seems to have been around for ever. He won a Listed race at Windsor on his reappearance but he has seen the backside of HARRY ANGEL already a few times. For that reason THE TIN MAN is not for me today.

CITY LIGHT is over from France at 14/1 having won a Group 3 over there and on Championship day at Lingfield she ran a fast time from a bad draw and there is form that puts him not far behind HARRY ANGEL. That is through a collateral line through BRANDO. He could be very interesting at 14/1.In the end the form line I went was from HARRY ANGEL’S run at York with BRANDO and you have to think HARRY ANGEL will improve.

My selection is at a big price PROJECTION @33/1 for Roger Charlton who is owned by the Royal Ascot Racing Club so there is a good clue that this horse has been aimed at this. The horse has  had 2 starts and in the first one it was a little bit slowly away and then unable to quicken in the closing stages finishing third. BRANDO was in that race which gives us a link to HARRY ANGEL. If you go through a pound a length he has a bit to find with the favourite but I thought he came on for that when finishing third behind THE TIN MAN next time. He was only a quarter of a length behind him at Windsor and just past the line he went past him and that was over 6 furlongs. I think this horse actually wants 7 furlongs but the fast pace likely I have mentioned should suit him perfectly. I know this is a Group 1 and a big ask but I don’t think we have reached the ceiling of what this horse is capable of. I do think given the way the race may pan out he may well hit the frame at a big price. Even as a 2 year old and it is funny how form works out he beat a horse called TARRABAK who was third at Haydock recently to DBAI who was second at Windsor in between THE TIN MAN and PROJECTION. Though we didn’t know at the time PROJECTION from being a 2 year old has been taking on group class horses. Now we are at Group 1 level and I think he is a fascinating runner. We will go 1 Point Each Way @28/1 PROJECTION.

A fascinating renewal of this great race and HARRY ANGEL will be very popular but I just think he is too short and personally I think he was worth taking on. Team OBrien will go off at a fast pace and that may well suit our selection PROJECTION who is a huge price.

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Race Reader

23 Apr

Newbury horses to follow from Race Reader

Good Afternoon,

On Friday and Saturday, I was at Newbury for what is always a really informative meeting where the form usually works out really well and I am sure this year will not be any exception. On Saturday I think I identified a horse which I think is going to go right to the top which may not be obvious to anyone but we will come to that a little bit later.

The big news on Friday was after all that good weather we had last week Newbury was still good to soft soft in places and that is what the ground remained for the two days. The opening race of the meeting on the Friday was the

1.50 Dreweatts Newcomers’ EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (2YO only)

This is always an interesting one, it is for the 2 year olds and there was a red hot favourite in the shape of WELL DONE FOX for the Hannon yard an ACCLAMATION Colt who was put in by the Bookmakers at an incredibly short 5/4. I have to say when I saw them in the preliminaries I had to be against this one as it looked like a 2 year old and it looked up against it as there were horses in here that had the scope to go onto much better things. The race was won by DAVE DEXTER with GLORY FIGHTER in second. GLORY FIGHTER was the one who knocked my out in the paddock for Charles Hills and Gerard Mosse and the winner DAVE DEXTER was quite green in the paddock and I am sure will come on for the run. In time I believe GLORY FIGHTER will be the best of the two so he is the one to take from the race and I would want to see him stepped up to 6 furlongs. He had a lot left when he hit the line and I am sure the front two will go on to a lot better things.

The next race on Friday was the

2.25 Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)

I think you can mark this down as serious handicap form for a Class 2 and the favourite was QAYSAR for Richard Hannon and Frankie Dettori and this horse had the benefit of a run having won a 3 year old race at Kempton and he stepped forward again for me here. I really like the way this horse won here and he travelled well through the race and on my private handicap I have him performing to way above his official mark of 90. It was even more impressive as I felt there was some depth to this race and I would suggest to anyone to follow this form because there will be winners galore coming out of this. My paddock pick in this race was OLIVER REED another runner for Richard Hannon and he looked really well in the paddock and I am sure he will be winning soon as he knocked my eye out in the paddock. He finished third in the end beaten 5 lengths and is the one I really want to take out of the race so look out for OLIVER REED. To repeat I believe the form of this race will be mega strong.

3.pm BJP Celebrating 20 Years Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Plus 10) (Class 4) (3YO only)

This usually turns out to be a good race and John Gosden always sends a good filly to line up in this one and he certainly did here with LAH TI DAR the 7/2 joint favourite. In the paddock before she looked athletic and really did seem the business and she proved it on the track winning by 6 lengths. What made it more impressive is that beforehand this lot looked a high quality load of fillies to my eye. This form should work out terrifically well and this was over 1 mile 2 on good to soft and LAH TI DAR relished every yard. It is owned by the Lloyd Webber lot and they were all there to see her and they must be very excited about her future and they should be.

3.35 Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus)

A Class 2 5 Furlong sprint was next up and there is one in here that particularly interests me going forward and that is A MOMENTOFMADNESS. Many people will have read my blog form Kempton a couple of weeks ago where I saw this one win but mentioned that the horse did not look fit. Well he still did not look fit but I have come to the conclusion he is such a big horse that he must always look like he is not quite there. This good to soft ground did for him I am afraid as he does not seem able to pick up or perform on anything slower than good. I am going to forgive him this and give him another go so look out for him when he gets his conditions. I am sure he is the ability to develop into a top class sprinter so do look out for him.

Friday really did turn out to be a highly informative card and I have given you some horses to look out for which I am sure will prove profitable if you do. If I had to pick one that I feel you must follow next time it has to be GLORY FIGHTER but the star of the day has to be LAH TI DAR. She is a really exciting filly and though she will not be much of a price next time she really is one to look out for.

I have more interest particularly as I identified what I think are really strong pieces of form on the Saturday card and if you would like that as well you can do for FREE.

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19 Feb

Listen, I have seen plenty of Bookies go skint!

The first rule of thumb that you are talking to a bad gambler is they all say the same phrase to you, that is “You never see a poor Bookmaker” It is usually shouted to you by punters who are shall we say not doing very well. Now Bookmakers overall have a good game don’t they with their margins but in this competitive age it is becoming a lot harder for them. They are having to offer up prices for all kinds of races that would not have to in days gone by. Of course the problem becomes getting bets on and they do not like you to because if they have made a mistake they could face huge liabilities.

As many of you will know a large part of the journey to where I am now was working as a Betting shop manager in the Midlands and then working for an on course Bookmaker. I quickly learnt that the saying you will never see a skint Bookmaker is untrue because I saw plenty of them. I have seen them turning up at racetracks and going home half way through never to be seen again. Laying horses may seem to some to be easy but let me assure you whether you are laying horses or backing horses nothing in racing is easy. Liabilities for layers can be huge and that is want to focus on in this article.

A Bookmakers job is to create a balanced book so the liabilities are never too bad. If you imagine when the betting exchanges came about all of a sudden something different was created .If you are laying just one horse then people have a misconception that it is going to be easy. Don’t get me wrong if you are laying horses at the higher end of the market on BetFair they are likely to be bigger prices than they should be so straight a way you should not be laying them.

I do personally lay horses though and when I finished on the tracks I had to learn the hard way. I had a bit of money but I took the way we did business on the racetrack and started looking for horses to take on. What I did not consider though was when I was having a few against a sole horse in the race I was actually backing at long odds on in reality. Now we know that backing at long odds on in betting is the way to the poor house. That is what happens with laying you get into a false sense of security. You go on a good run of lays that all get beat and you think you are doing really well then all of a sudden you go on a run and it will always happen when things start to go wrong. That is what happened to me and it knocked my betting bank out completely which as you can imagine put me on the back foot. I learned from that experience and the main thing I learned was to be very selective.

 

I know use all the methods that you would use to find lays but then I am extremely selective in what I actually lay. Just recently some of you will have seen that I have been offering a lay of the day now personally I might lay a horse every couple of weeks. I tend to do more in the flat season as its more tactical and gives me more of an edge. On the Lay of the Day service so far we have had a good run and had some really short priced horses beat. I am just wondering if people are interested in laying horses or are interested in what goes on in selecting a good lay. I am offering a Free Trial to this service which will definitely contain some handy hints and various other things and obviously the lay of the day. Now let me be clear don’t expect bets all the time because I do not lay horses very often. I will not lay horses if they are too big I only lay horses if I feel they are far too short. I never lay horses over 2/1 and the key thing to remember is if you are laying a horse at 2/1 then you are actually betting at 1/2. Never forget that because your liability is 2/1 if it wins because you have to pay out double. If you keep doing that odds on then the same way as you are backing at odds on you are going to come unstuck. You need to realise if you start laying at bigger than 2/1 then yes you will get a good run going but you will be flat on your arse in no time trust me.

If you are active on the exchanges and you want a decent lay with some reasoning behind it then sign up for a Free no obligation trial because I want to see what interest there is out there in laying horses. It is something I do personally but it is not something I have offered on the platform before. So by all means if you are interested I will send you some lays of the day with some reasoning. All you have to do is click the button below and then check we are not in your junk folder and put us on your safe sender list so you receive them. If nothing else there will be some interesting blogs and some trade secrets of laying horses. You will start to see how Bookmakers think and how they put together a market so just click the free trial link below and I will begin to tell you much more about the World of laying horses.

13 Feb

Why it’s a good idea to turn the volume DOWN !

I want to mention a tactic I use for research and form analysis  which at first you may find odd and that is why I watch racing with the volume down.

Many years ago when I started to really take a serious interest in racing (I wish it was a few years ago but time marches on) somebody set to me on track “ You should do your form study in utter silence and you should also do it with the volume turned off on your tv set so you cannot hear the commentator).  Now he never elaborated and I was just a bit wet behind the ears and at the time I did not take it on board. But I have since then over the last few years started to realise what he meant.

This is a fascinating game and you learn all the time in it and years ago when I started out people said stuff to me, which I can now see what the relevance is. One such thing was the volume down and I suppose it is a good clue isn’t it that we have one mouth but two ears. The idea is clearly to listen more than we talk !

Now when I do my form study and due to the business and the busy lives we all lead it is not easy but I do try and turn the phone off and work in silence. Most of my work though is done from video because the formbook will only tell you so much in terms of pounds for lengths etc. So video work is paramount for me to get the full picture. I get a very strong feel from watching video and that helps me formulate my selections.

I did use to listen to the commentaries but after musing on what the very wise man told me I realised that a commentators job is actually to make a race seem exciting. Some of them make a selling race seem like it is the Champion Hurdle and they are primed to entertain the audience. That gives the serious racing form only the perspective of that commentator trying to entertain and quite often you hear many people hang on the commentators every word. Quite often and this goes for other sports too I will hear that commentators word/view being relayed by viewers. If however you turn them off and like the old silent movies watch the racing in complete silence then you almost feel it is deafening!

What will start to happen is you will look purely with your eyes and form a true picture with no other opinions or interference about how a horse is really travelling. We will hear a commentator say ‘look he is travelling well” but is it really? or is just because you think it is. It is not helpful to you to hear their view as it may complicate what you as an individual form reader are seeing.

So that very wise man who may not even be alive now was correct and I now fully understand what he meant.

One such commentator who needs to be avoided from a form reading point of view who may be good for the sport but I can’t stand is Mark Johnston. Have you ever heard anything like it as he puts incredible excitement into everything, bigging it up. We must look at it cold and not get drawn in and possibly misled by a commentator. I am not having a dig at him his job is to big it up but we must be careful.

So try it turn your TV down turn your phone off and watch it describing it as you go ! You will get a new perspective and you may see  races in a different light and that is never a bad thing!

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05 Feb

This Frost is welcome any time of the year

Bryony Frost is a Jockey who is gaining huge media attention on what seems to be every Saturday as she seemingly rides the big race winner mainly for her boss Paul Nicholls.

Now I must admit I am always a little bit wary when the media say after a few winners so and so is an exceptional jockey as I think you need a lot of evidence to say such things.  If you look back over the years at stats you will see that certain horses will perform better for certain jockeys. Normally there is only about three or four jockeys at any given time that stand out against the average and prove that they are exceptional in certain disciplines.

So when Bryony Frost started winning on tv on Saturdays and they hype machine was cranked up my initial reaction was “Oh yes here we go “. I thought yes she is a lovely down to earth girl with a good foundation in the game who has linked up with Paul Nicholls etc. But I have always maintained that it is the horse who does the work and when people question me about a jockey’s ride I always say “ I wasn’t watching the jockey I was watching the horse” The horse gives you the clue to the performance going forward not its pilot.

But and it is a big but in this case I must admit and it was only recently when I watched her ride FRODON at Cheltenham on Trials day that I realised she does seem to get horses running for her. She had so much confidence in the horse and likewise he in her that she was so brave at the last three fences when she could have had an easy. If you hear her being interviewed she probably does not speak overly professional but she clearly loves the horses and she simplifies it all to stress the partnership with the horse.

What I glean from hearing her is that she clearly rides the horses at home and pays attention to detail and they reproduce that on the track by really running for her when it matters. Animals are not stupid and they are loyal just like dogs are to certain people. Jockeys can get to races and have never sat on one and jump on in the parade ring and off they go but surely familiarity is an advantage. The way that FRODON ran for her at Cheltenham and the way she rode MILANSBAR to win the big race at Warwick were both examples of her love for the horses and that she is prepared to put the time in to get the best out of them. Clearly you still need a horse with ability but FRODON had looked like a 3 miler who struggled to pick up but under her he was revitalised. This relationship is what makes the difference.

So I am going to take back what I said at the beginning of the article because clearly she is something special. It’s a good story for ITV so they will keep the interviews coming and Paul Nicholls will keep putting her up on good horses. I suspect he has twigged that she gets that little bit more out of horses than others can and will be keen to utilise that. She sits as quiet as a mouse and lets the horse do the rest keeping it uncomplicated. Racing is just about the only sport where Men and Women are off a level playing field and the reason is that is still mainly about the horse and I will stand by that assertion. Every stat will tell you that and as I have said only a few riders buck those averages and win above what they should do.

I do think she is a real talent and obviously working and knowing the Nicholls’s horses is a real advantage. Now it could be without that knowledge and that relationship, when she starts having outside rides that we see that performance drop. That will be fascinating to see but one thing is for sure she is a breath of fresh air and a Press Man’ s dream. They all have media training and are told what to say and what not to. She is a natural and gets across how much she loves the horses and the game in general and it is so refreshing to see.

It is going to be very interesting watching her career develop but one thing is for sure you really has a rare talent for getting horses to run for her. This really is one Frost that is good to see at any time of year.

Matt Mitter (CEO Value Rater Platform)

02 Feb

Saturday’s Big Race Preview

Good Afternoon its Friday and that means another big Saturday Race preview from our CEO and Founder Race Reader himself Matt Mitter,

Selection 3.00 Sandown BEAT THAT 1 Point Each Way 16/1

Good Afternoon,

Lets take a look at the 3.00 at Sandown tomorrow the BetFred Heroes Handicap Hurdle which is a Grade 3 in status with at time of writing 18 runners set to line up. It is certainly an interesting race and it is good after a week of quite morbid stuff to see some good quality action.

TOP OF THE GAME is 11/2 joint favourite for Paul Nicholls and I was a little disappointed to see him as short in the betting as he was one of two horses I was left toying with. I do my own tissue of prices for Race Reader and I was hoping he would be a better price to be honest. I think the Bookmakers have his price bang on and we saw him last time in the Lanzarote over 2 Miles 5 furlongs on soft ground when finishing fourth and he has been raised 3 pounds for that. This longer trip will suit being by FLEMENSFIRTH but I am not sure the ground which is drying out will be ideal. Kempton is a flat track but it was always off the bridle from half way and just stayed on all day and though a big runner 11/2 is a bit short for this lightly raced sort. After falling this year in the race before the Lanzarote he was second and the end of last season to BEYOND CONCEIT beaten only a neck. That went on to Aintree to finish second in a grade 1 so that is some seriously good form. Off 142 he could still be well handicapped but the nagging doubt over the slightly drying ground and whether he has the speed rather than just staying means I will overlook him.

Next in the betting also at 11/2 we have MELROSE BOY  and this one is one of two who are stepping into open handicap company from Novice Hurdles. He made a very good visual impression when it won by no less than 50 lengths at Fontwell . The trouble is we just do not know what it has beaten and this is a real step up in class and is not like dotting round Fontwell. It really is impossible to know whether he is the right price or the wrong price.

GOLAN FORTUNE is next in @9/1 this is a horse who has done really well this season and comes here after winning at Kempton over 2 miles 5 in Class 3 Company. He does seem a little bit keen in his races and wheres the Cheek Pieces and he won at Ascot beating THE MIGHTY DON as well so you have to say he must be competitive. I just have a feeling that the handicapper is of course going to catch up with him and that it might well be tomorrow when he does. 9/1 seems a fair reflection of his chances but i will overlook him.

DASHING PERK is also in here @9/1 and we have to mention him because he did it very easily when winning 22 lengths at Wincanton. It is similar to MELROSE BOY in that it is very hard to gauge what it actually achieved in doing that. Off 127 he could possibly be well in and these two could be anything but we do not have enough evidence at the moment to back them but it will be fascinating to see how they get on.

Lets mention TAJ BADALANDABAD @16/1 a big price for a horse who apparently turned over a new leaf when winning at Huntingdon last time. Before that his form for trainer David pipe had been wretched and it is strange how many from that yard can suddenly turn over a new leaf isn’t it. It is almost like a magic wand is waved over them and he remains interesting here at big price but difficult to know which form he will turn up in.

Lets get down to the selection who I expected to be a shorter price and that is BEAT THAT @16/1. He is a double grade 1 winner so he certainly has the class admittedly a few years ago. By MILAN he will enjoy the trip and I thought he showed his Class over course and distance last time on good to soft ground.when third . He never gave up and kept on and on in the closing stages having looked at one stage like he would be finishing out with the washing and I think this race lacks the class angle. He has it and has proved it whereas some of the others have to prove it! I make BEAT THAT an 8/1 shot here and at 16/1 we have to be on 1 point Each Way 1/4 the odds 4 places. he may just be the forgotten horse here but he is the class angle.

In conclusion we will learn a lot about several horses tomorrow including the two horses who have been dotting up in Novice Company. I thought TOP OF THE GAME was my first choice but the Bookmakers have it priced correctly so we will go with the Class act BEAT THAT 1 Point Each Way @16/1.

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Matt Mitter aka Race Reader

15 Dec

It’s GUITAR PETE with no strings attached

It’s Friday and that means that it is time for another big Saturday race preview from our CEO and Founder Matt Mitter AKA Race Reader. Today Race Reader previews the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup

Selection Cheltenham 1.55   SPLASH OF GINGE 1 Point Win 10/1 GUITAR PETE 1Point Win 12/1  (Free £100 Bet below)

Good Afternoon,

Tomorrow Cheltenham stage the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at 1.55.It is a Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 2 Miles 4 Furlongs and 11 runners go to post. I always think of this race as the follow up to the Bet Victor Chase and the first time to test the form. We will find out if the handicapper is correct in his assumption that it was not all that good this year.

As a Race Reader you have the luxury with these big Saturday races that you start looking at them a couple of days before and this is one that I have studied then slept on then studied again. That is for a few reasons, as I will set out

CLAN DES OBEAUX is put in as the 4/1 favourite here and he carries top weight for Paul Nicholls. I cannot argue against him being favourite here but whether I think he should be 4/1 is another matter. This horse’s form has been widely advertised and in a 2 runner race he was beaten ½ a length at Kempton by WHISPER. That horse went on to be an agonisingly close second in the big Ladbroke Chase at Newbury. He was beaten by TOTAL RECALL with 9 lengths back to the third REGAL ENCORE. Now you have to say if you put WHISPER in here off a mark of 155 you would rate his chances so CLAN DES OBEAUX off 155 has to be of interest. Last time out he won seven lengths at Haydock in a Class 2 Chase on heavy ground. Those last two races were very different from what he will face here in this bigger field though and he will have to be seriously well handicapped as he has a lot of weight. Those factors are enough to make me look elsewhere.

Next in @6/1 is STARCHITECHT for David Pipe a horse who finished second in the BetVictor Chase here .He locks horns again with his conqueror that day SPLASH OF GINGE.i am scratching my head here as to why STARCHITECT is 6/1 and the winner SPLASH OF GINGE is 10/1.Both have been punished in the weights after the race and the handicapper has clearly taken the view that the Bet. Victor was not up to much this year .The winner SPLASH OF GINGE won the race off a mark of 134 and has only been put up 5 pounds. Now I personally think the Handicapper has under valued this form and I think it is stronger than he does.

Lets not forget though SPLASH OF GINGE came into the Bet Victor on the back of a lot of bad runs you have to assume that he has come back to his very best form to win .Now his very best form saw him win races like the Betfair hurdle and on that form he could still be very well handicapped. So in turn you must say the same for STARCHITECHT but for me they should be the same price here so the fact we can get 10/1 SPLASHOFGINGE to me is an insulting price and we must have 1 Point Win @10/1.On the back of that victory he should be favourite here not 10/1.He will be one of two bets I will be giving in this race.

LE PREZIEN was third that day in the bet Victor and he is here @13/2, he was my selection that day but yet again his jumping let him down. That would be my concern that day and also I do not think he got home up the hill. They are staying at the trip though on this the stiffer of the tracks here the New Corse and they are fitting a tongue tie for the first time. They may be feeling he is having trouble with his breathing and that will make the difference. I cannot be with him here as I have been with him on his last 2 runs when he has failed to win and at a best priced 13/2 he is tight enough in the market. With the jumping and stamina question marks I will be leaving him this time.

KINGS ODDYSEY has been well supported for this and is the selection of a couple of good judges I respect and is now best priced 13/2.He is not for me at that price and is a horse who has already been on the floor. With that in mind he is now far too short to be of interest for me.

We then have BALLYALTON who for me here will not get this trip and is best priced 8/1.He was on his knees at the end of the Bet victor and I just cannot see him getting home in this.

The other horse I am selecting here is GUITAR PETE for Nicky Richards. The horse has no weight at all in this right down at the bottom of the handicapper and jockey Ryan Day takes a further 3 Pounds off .The horse was beaten 25 lengths in the Bet Victor but you have to forgive him that because he was virtually carried out that day. After being seriously hampered through no fault of his own he could never get back into the race. Before that he won a Listed race at Wetherby beating SAMATEGAL by 7 lengths over 2 miles 3 furlongs. He surprised me there because I did not think he would have the speed to do that. Again he had a very low weight that day. Before that I watched him run in a listed race at Market Rasen when he really struggled to lay up in a race that was run over the same distance as today. This can be a problem with him and he can come off the bridle early in his races and it will be key here that he does not get too far behind in a race that should be run at a good tempo. The form of that race at Rasen has worked out extremely well where GUITAR PETE was a 4 length second to BALLYBOLLEY.The third MASTER DEE has come out and been very unlucky to be beaten by ON TOUR. With a massive gap back to the third. The fourth horse was PLAY THE ACE and he has won 3 times since. At 12/1 GUITAR PETE is a serious player here off a mark of 134.Lets not forget the horse is a Grade 1 winning hurdler albeit some time ago. That was at Aintree in 2014 so he certainly has shown he has class and I think even with the nagging doubt of him getting too far back he is definitely the value in the race @12/1.

In conclusion I think the Bet Victor win by SPLASH OF GINGE has been completely under rated and we will have 1 Point Win on him. Also GUITAR PETE is the best value in the race and @12/1 we will have 1 point Win on him as well. It is a fascinating race and the market seems in agreement with the handicapper picking holes in the Bet Victor form. I however believe it is better than they think and I have never seen a bad renewal of that race ever.

 

 

02 Nov

The Genius Factor

Its Thursday and that means another Blog from our CEO and Founder Matt Mitter AKA Race Reader.

Good Afternoon,

Last Thursday we looked at one of my golden rules of betting namely never back a horse that fell or was pulled up last time. As I was walking the dog today I found myself thinking about Top Trainers.

One of the key things about what I do is that I constantly need to update my ideas and adapt to new ways of thinking. Some of all old punting strategies will no longer work that’s just a fact of punting life. Over a long period of time I look for evidence of a new strategy.

One thing I’ve noticed about the Top Jumps Trainers like Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson is that their horses are constantly over bet. Because of this when they get a few beat the media and punters will cry that the yard are out of form and in trouble. Mostly that’s rubbish the horses are just over bet and too short in the market and getting beat. This happened last season with another big name trainer in Allan King. Perhaps Tipsters/Punters seek comfort in blaming Trainers rather than questioning their own methods and strategies.

Looking at Paul Nicholls and on the Flat Sir Michael Stoute who I struggled to get a handle on for years on the Flat. I used to think when we get to the higher graded and group races they were all much of a muchness but I realize we have to factor in the really great Trainers .You have to think with Stoute and with Nicholls what is their benchmark with a horse and how they can draw improvement out. These certain trainers are exceptions to the rule and major improvement in horses can be seen time and time again with these Trainers. Hats one thing I have learned from years of studying them and at the start of the season they will think of the longevity of the season and of the horse. Some of the lesser lights will have a horse as good as it can be right at the beginning and that’s where it will stay.

Nicholls this season I will be watching for this progression, now he can get them fit for debuts but he has evolved his methods so that progression continues throughout the season. If you remember when he started he used to have brilliant early season form, which he could never keep going at the end. He has identified this and evolved his methods. So now when I see his horses I fully expect there to be three or four pounds improvement to come and factor that in to my thinking. With Nicky Henderson I expect to see consistency throughout the year but Nicholls owing to the change in his approach you can pretty much guarantee that improvement.

That’s what makes him great so he can get horses to win in the lower grades but draw out improvement to still  win the big races that really matter .Seing that and being able to adept my betting around this Genius factor if you like keeps me ahead of the game.

Hopefully next week we will be telling you all about the New Value Rater Platform and what improvements you can expect. Old members and new will be impressed and we are busy putting it all together and as always your customer experience will come first.

Matt

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